11/15 – Forecast for Tuesday night at Brittany’s “Winter Sense”.

During the rest of the business week, we can expect strong elevated pressure to be one of the main factors shaping our outlook. It will usher in a cooler air mass which will provide uncharacteristically high temperatures, well below the seasonal norm. We can expect the highs and lows to be 15+ degrees below normal, topping in the mid-50s and dipping into the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Calm weather expected otherwise. The hardening gradient will create windy conditions for the next few days with gusts in the 20/30 mph range during the day, then dropping to the low teens overnight. Wind chill will play a factor for the next few nights, along with cooler temperatures.

In general, upper level disturbance will be present in the region throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Other minor disturbances will circulate across the base of the main basin every 2-3 days which will help keep the unseasonably cold temperatures in check. Models indicate that a particular disturbance a little further south will track across Texas and Los Angeles late in the week. This will try to pull moisture north but it looks like most of the shower activity associated with this system should be limited mostly to the coastal areas of Mississippi. One caveat for this period of forecasts, and this weekend for that matter, is that the model’s capabilities to resolve such weak features lie far at the lower end of the spectrum. Therefore, confidence in the exact position of rain is not particularly high.