Dow jumps 300 points as investors bet rising rates and inflation to ease into year-end
Path ahead will be bumpy, according to Goldman Sachs
Even though stocks are looking up on Tuesday, it is likely due to a lack of macro news and low volume during the short holiday week, according to Goldman Sachs.
“Investors are assuming a somewhat pro-cylical stance on Tuesday, the penultimate trading day before Thanksgiving, leaning into Energy, Materials, and Tech,” the firm wrote in a Tuesday note. “On the other hand, yields on 10-year US treasuries are pulling back, falling ~6bps to 3.76%.”
Still, investors are closely watching earnings reports for signs of a soft landing.
“Peeking under the hood of the S&P 500 reveals that markets are focused on results, leaning into companies that reported better than expected earnings like BBY, DKS, A, WMG, and ADI, and away from those that disappointed, including DLTR, MDT,” Goldman said. “A preference for companies delivering on earnings and margins is perhaps to be expected, as investors focus on quality.”
Stocks aren’t out of the woods yet, though.
“Our strategists believe the path forward could be a bumpy one, as the bear market is not over, and neither is the rate hiking cycle. Looking ahead, focus on the FOMC meeting minutes that are being released tomorrow.”
Manchester United shares pop on report that owners are considering financial options
Shares of Manchester United, the professional football club, surged more than 12% Tuesday after a Sky News report said that the owners of the team are set to explore financial options including a potential sale.
The news comes the same day that the club announced that it had ended the contract of player Cristiano Ronaldo by mutual agreement and with immediate effect. Ronaldo’s departure comes about a week after he gave an interview criticizing the club.
2023 won’t bring ‘your mom and dad’s recession,’ says Bank of America’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy
Savita Subramanian, Bank of America’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, said a recession in 2023 will look different than those seen in the past.
“Some of the biggest risks that we see over the next 12 months are driven by the fact that things are different this time,” she said in a note to clients. She said it’s “not your mom and dad’s recession.”
Tech will continue to get hit, she said. But there’s a whole list of other factors that could impact how the market performs.
— Alex Harring
Stocks making the biggest moves midday
These are some of the stocks making the biggest moves midday:
Abercrombie & Fitch – Shares of the retail stock jumped 19% after the apparel retailer beat Wall Street’s revenue forecasts for the third quarter and posted unexpected quarterly profit. The company said demand rose for clothing as consumers returned to work and had increasing social obligations.
Zoom Video – Shares of the pandemic darling fell more than 4% after the firm issued weaker-than-expected revenue guidance for its full fiscal year. Meanwhile, the video-conferencing company’s quarterly earnings topped estimates, while revenue met expectations.
Best Buy – The stock surged 11% after the consumer electronics retailer beat Wall Street’s estimates and maintained its outlook for the holiday period. Demand remains below its pandemic high, but Best Buy indicated it is faring well even as inflation weighs on consumers’ pockets.
Dollar Tree – The discount retailer saw shares slide amore than 8% after the company projected full-year earnings in the lower half of its prior guidance range while beating top and bottom line estimates for its latest quarter and on comparable store sales.
— Alex Harring
Cloud computing stocks bounce back from sharp early losses
Hurt most by a sharp drawdown in Zoom Video, the WisdomTree Cloud Computing ETF (WCLD) has recovered from an early morning loss of some 6.6% and was lower by a little less than 1% in early afternoon trading.
Zoom (ZM) remains 4.9% lower — but earlier was off by 10.4%. Similarly, Paypal (PYPL) is down about 2% after sliding as much as 5.7%.
RingCentral (RNG) hasn’t rebounded as much, but has recovered a bit, dropping 4% after earlier falling 5.7%.
Zoom brought on much of the sector’s latest woes. Late Monday, the pandemic/work-from-home darling gave investors a light forward earnings forecast and CEO Eric Yuan said on the conference call it’s seeing “heightened deal scrutiny for new business.”
— Scott Schnipper, Gina Francolla
Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange will close following World Cup win
Saudi Arabia’s equities exchange will close Wednesday after it was named a national holiday recognizing the country’s win in a match against Argentina during the World Cup.
King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud issued the decree announcing the holiday for employees in the public and private sector after the country’s team upset Argentina with a 2-1 win.
Argentina’s team is ranked third in the world by FIFA and includes Lionel Messi, who many consider to be one of the best players in the world. Saudi Arabia is ranked 51st.
The exchange will reopen Thursday.
— Alex Harring
A surprisingly decent retail earnings season
Tuesday was a big day for retail earnings and the main takeaway is that there are surprisingly few big misses in the bunch.
On the whole, performance has been helped by better-than-expected sales and margins that have held up well. A look through Refinitiv’s same-store sales summary also shows there really weren’t many significant misses for this important retail sales metric. Although the environment certainly is promotional, it doesn’t seem like retailers are offering massive fire-sale price cuts.
With Q3 just about in the books, the attention turns to the holiday season and how Q4 estimates will fare in the weeks to come. Retailers have been cautious in their outlooks, but they’re refraining from entirely downbeat forecasts. The message seems to be that despite lingering macro concerns, shopping patterns should be somewhat normal this holiday season, with the biggest activity concentrated during Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend and then peaking again in the days leading up to Christmas.
On the downside is Dollar Tree (down 9%), which is seeing some pressure on its margins, prompting it to guide to the low end of its earlier forecast.
—Robert Hum, Christina Cheddar Berk
Volatility likely to continue in energy markets
Oil prices have been whipsawed this week ahead of OPEC+ Dec. 4 meeting, where it will give a further update on output. Prices slipped 5% Monday after a Wall Street Journal report said the group had considered a production hike of 500,000 barrels, which Saudi Arabia later denied.
In addition, Saudi Arabia said the group may further cut output.
“While there are a host of reasons weighing on oil prices, trading December crude oil futures was this week, and ended on November 21, which added to volatility,” wrote Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. “As in any trading session involving contract expirations and futures, especially when holiday-related volume decreases, volatility is typically heightened.”
There is also worry that interest rates, ticking up globally, will lead to recession and hurt demand. The recent uptick of covid cases in China hasn’t helped, as it’s likely set back a reopening of the country that would’ve boosted demand.
There are more hurdles to come.
“Following the December 4 meeting, a European Union ban on Russian crude imports will begin. In addition, a G7 plan to limit Russia’s gains from oil exports, is due to go into effect,” said Krosby. “The plan has placed a price cap on the exports, and there are growing worries that Russia could soon retaliate because oil revenue is the major funding source for its military campaign against Ukraine.”
84% of today’s 19 S&P 500 52-week highs are all-time records
Nineteen stocks in the S&P 500 hit 52-week highs so far Tuesday and, of those, 16 (84%) also touched all-time highs. Three of the 19 (TRV, MRK, IBM) are also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and two of those are among the all-time highs:
- General Parts Co. (GPC), highest since a 1948 IPO
- O’Reilly Auto (ORLY), all-time high since 1993 IPO
- TJX Cos. (TJX), all-time high back to 1987 IPO
- General Mills (GIS), all-time highs back through history dating from 1927
- Monster Beverage (MNST), all-time high back to predecessor’s Nasdaq listing in 1992
- Pepsico (PEP), highest ever, going back to Pepsi-Cola’s merger with Frito-Lay in 1965
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC), all-time high back to spinoff from Marathon Oil in 2011
- Aflac Inc. (AFL), all-time back through CNBC data history in 1973
- Arthur J Gallagher (AJG), all-time high back to 1984 IPO
- Globe Life (GL), all-time high back to predecessor’s data in 1980
- MetLife (MET), all-time high back to going public in 2000
- Progressive (PGR), all-time high back to 1971 IPO
- Travelers (TRV), all-time high back to spin-off from Citi in 2002
- Gilead Sciences (GILD), highest since April 2020
- Merck & Co. (MRK), all-time high back through CNBC history starting in 1978
- PACCAR (PCAR), all-time high back to 1971 IPO
- Quanta Services (PWR), all-time high back to 1998 IPO
- Snap-On (SNA), highest since June 2021
- International Business Machines (IBM), highest since Feb. 2020
There were two 52-week lows in the S&P 500 early Tuesday:
- Tesla (TSLA), lowest since Nov. 2020
- Medtronic (MDT), lowest since March 2020
— Scott Schnipper and Christopher Hayes
Goldman’s official 2023 outlook: Where stocks are going and how to invest
Goldman Sachs is expecting zero earnings growth in 2023 and a flat year for stocks, with the S&P 500 ending the year at 4,000. That price target is just over 1% from Monday’s close.
While the firm currently expects a soft landing from the Federal Reserve, there is a risk of a hard landing and recession, said David Kostin, Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist.
“The combination of a flat return under our base case and large downside in a recession means investors should remain cautious,” he wrote in a note Monday.
Therefore he recommends tilting portfolios toward defensive sectors with low interest-rate risk, like consumer staples, and looking at stocks that are leveraged to decelerating inflation.
To see his stock picks and other sectors he likes, read this CNBC Pro story.
— Michelle Fox
Honeywell is underappreciated, according to JPMorgan
Honeywell has underappreciated technology angles and growth potential, according to JPMorgan.
There are a number of reasons for the call, including a management presentation that goes “against the narrative that this $2.3 B business is merely commodity ‘fossil’ exposure,” analyst Stephen Tusa Jr. wrote in a note Monday.
That presentation showed the company’s performance materials and technologies business group, UOP, is not a static refining-based technology, he said. A majority of the catalyst business is petrochem, which is higher margin and more differentiated, he added.
The most underappreciated is its sustainability technology solutions (STS) unit, which is growing and is a “prime example” of highly unique niches in which Honeywell should maintain differentiation over the long term, Tusa said.
“For the stock, it’s true that on FCF it’s already re-rated, but the favorable end market exposure, HON-specific drivers set to sustain, and a balance sheet that lends safety on defense and growth and transformation on offense are all key to justifying the multiple,” he wrote.
Shares of Honeywell are up about 4% year to date.
Energy leads S&P 500 higher
The S&P 500 energy sector jumped more than 2%, on pace for its biggest one-day gain since Nov. 11, to lead the broader market index higher. Materials also rose more than 1%.
Real estate was the laggard, sliding about 0.1%.
— Fred Imbert
Bank of America names Costco a top pick
Bank of America names Costco a top pick because of rising food inflation, and expects shares have further upside from here.
“We expect high food inflation to drive continued share gains for the warehouse club channel (including Costco) given the strong value proposition and price positioning on overlapping SKUs vs. mass and traditional grocery,” analyst Robert Ohmes wrote in a Tuesday note.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here.
— Sarah Min
Amazon stock could see some relief soon, Piper Sandler says
Amazon stock may soon be set up for some reprieve after slumping more than 44% year to date, according to Thomas Champion at Piper Sandler.
“First, the company has embarked on a headcount reduction,” Champion wrote in a Tuesday note. “he peer signal is clear: on average, the companies in our coverage who have cut headcount this year are up ~8% since the announcement, handily outperforming the S&P.”
The stock’s underperformance this year may have put it in a solid position for a rebound as well.
“As of mid-November, AMZN’s 1YR return in the stock is a ~50% decline,” he said. “Prior periods of significant dislocation in the stock have yielded compelling F12M returns.”
Even though the company’s latest earnings report showed slowing AWS growth, it appears to be an industry-wide trend, according to Champion. AWS remains an industry leader in cloud and is well-positioned to withstand a potential recession.
The firm lowered some of its earnings estimates slightly but reiterated its overweight rating and bullish outlook on Amazon.
Cathie Wood adds more crypto assets
Cathie Wood’s Ark Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) added 176,945 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust on Monday. The investors started buying the dip in crypto-related shares last week even as the fallout from the FTX collapse is creating new stresses in the industry. She also bought Coinbase and Silvergate Capital recently.
The Grayscale trust is viewed by many as a proxy for the price of bitcoin, but it is currently trading well below the market value of the coins it holds.
Earlier Tuesday, bitcoin fell to $15,480 , its lowest level since Nov. 11, 2020.
— Yun Li
BP shares jump on upgrade from Citi
U.S.-listed shares of BP gained more than 4% in the premarket Tuesday after Citi upgraded shares of the oil stock to a buy from a neutral rating.
“Growth is one aspect that we believe BP can start to differentiate around versus large-cap European peers; we forecast underlying growth almost 2x that of closest peer SHEL,” wrote analyst Alastair Syme in a note to clients, highlighting the company’s favorable valuation to its European peers.
CNBC Pro subscribers can check out the full story here.
— Samantha Subin
S&P could see a 7% gain from here, says Deutsche Bank’s Chadha
The S&P 500 recently rallied more than 11% off of its mid-October lows as very low positioning got squeezed on positive catalysts. Deutsche Bank says the squeeze could have further to go based on equity positioning, flows and buybacks.
“A combination of positioning returning to neutral and continued buybacks argues for a rally in the S&P 500 back to 4,200 by year-end and to 4,500 by the end of Q1 2023,” Deutsche’s Binky Chadha said in a note to investors Monday. “We see aggregate equity positioning moving up to near neutral by the end of Q1 2023, driving the S&P 500 higher by 6% to 7%, and for buybacks to add 3 to 4% over the quarter.”
Flows into U.S. equities have been “resilient” and are in a seasonally strong period through March now and buybacks remain supportive, Chadha said. Macro data surprises have ben positive but the key question is whether volatility will subside, especially with extreme market focus around the last two CPI days.
“Looking ahead, implied vol for CPI and FOMC days in December is significantly lower than over the last 2 months, but rising,” Chadha said.
— Tanaya Macheel
Stocks rise at market open Tuesday
Stocks jumped at the open of the trading day on Tuesday as Wall Street shook off worries of covid lockdowns in China and looked to some solid earnings reports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 190 points, or 0.56%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.54% and 0.37%.
Shares of Best Buy popped nearly 9% after the company hiked its 2023 fiscal outlook and beat earnings expectations.
Buy Walgreens as it grows its health care business, Cowen says in upgrade
Cowen upgraded shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance, saying the stock offers an attractive risk-reward and can rally more than 30% from here.
“While execution remains a risk, particularly given the macro environment, WBA’s current valuation already discounts this risk, with shares at only 8.7x CY23 EPS and 6.9x CY23 EBITDA,” wrote analyst Charles Rhyee in a note to clients. “We view the risk/reward as very attractive, and believe investors should take the risk, given near-term support from 4.8% dividend yield.”
The stock added nearly 2% before the bell Tuesday.
Read more on the upgrade from Cowen here.
— Samantha Subin
JPMorgan upgrades Toll Brothers, says stock trades cheap compared to peers
JPMorgan upgraded shares of Toll Brothers to an overweight from a neutral rating, saying in a note to clients Tuesday that the stock trades at a solid discount to its homebuilding peers.
Analyst Michael Rehaut said that Toll Brothers is “inexpensive relative to our outlook for roughly average gross margins and only moderately below average ROE versus its larger caps in 2023 and 2024,” noting that the company trades at a price-to-book discount to its competitors.
Shares rose 3% in the premarket.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more on the call here.
— Samantha Subin
Best Buy, Dicks Sporting Goods and more – biggest premarket stock moves
A number of stocks are moving in premarket trading due to earnings and more.
Best Buy — Shares of the company surged after an earnings beat and a boosted 2023 fiscal outlook.
Dick’s Sporting Goods — Shares initially spiked on a revenue and profit beat, as well as better-than-expected sales in the third quarter and a raised guidance, but later fell.
Abercrombie & Fitch — The retail stock jumped nearly 13% on its earnings beat.
Wall Street cuts price targets for Zoom Video after weak guidance
Shares of Zoom Video fell about 9% in premarket trading after delivering weak guidance for the fourth quarter.
The video conferencing company reported a better-than-expected $1.07 in adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter, but that didn’t win over Wall Street analysts. Several cut their price targets for Zoom last night and this morning.
“We struggle to find a near-term upside catalyst, with the Online business likely pressured the next several quarters, and our estimates implying further downside risk to street revenue numbers from here,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Matthew Niknam, who lowered his price target on the stock to $75 per share from $95.
Piper Sandler, MoffettNathanson, Mizuho, UBS and Wells Fargo also cut their price targets on Zoom Video.
MoffettNathanson analyst Sterling Auty, in lowering his price target to $80 from $85, said Zoom’s “turn is still quarters away.”
“There are breadcrumbs being laid to get a sense of when the overall growth of the business might inflect, and, if all goes well, that is still three quarters into the future. However, it is not completely clear if a worsening macro environment (layoffs) would extend the timeline to a turn, or just result in a lower growth rate prior to the turn,” Auty said in a note to clients.
— Jesse Pound, Michael Bloom
Stock picking opportunities are bullish for the market, Wilson says
One of the top strategists on Wall Street says the next boom cycle for stocks won’t look like the top-heavy run of the last decade but instead be a rich environment for stock pickers.
Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson said Tuesday that, while he expects the S&P 500 to fall from here before bottoming in 2023, stocks are starting to separate from one another in a preview of the next sustained rally.
“Probably one of the most bullish things we see going forward is it’s not going to be a stock market of 10 stocks any more. There’s going to be more opportunities. It’s going to be more democratic across the stock market,” Wilson said on “Squawk Box.”
“That doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy as a stock picker, but there’s going to be many more participants. The breadth is improving. And that’s what we’re seeing,” he added.
Wilson released his 2023 outlook last week. Read more about his forecast on CNBC Pro.
— Jesse Pound
Best Buy jumps after raising full-year guidance
Best Buy shares popped more than 7% in the premarket after the electronics retailer hiked its fiscal 2023 outlook.
“We are updating our FY23 outlook to flow through our better-than-expected Q3 results while keeping our Q4 expectations unchanged,” CFO Matt Bilunas said. “We now expect comparable sales to decline approximately 10% and our non-GAAP operating income rate2 to be slightly higher than 4.0%.”
The company also posted fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat analyst expectations.
— Fred Imbert
Carvana gets another downgrade
Analysts continued bailing on Carvana, with Cowen being the latest firm to downgrade the used car seller. Cowen lowered its rating on the stock to market perform from outperform and slashed its price target to $10 from $55.
“CVNA has not met ’22 profit targets while carrying a significant debt load,” the firm wrote, adding that it now estimates the company won’t achieve EBITDA profitability until 2024. “Overall, we are less confident in CVNA’s timeline for reaching positive free cash flow.”
Carvana shares have plummeted 97% in 2022.
— Sam Subin
European markets cautiously higher as investors assess economic fears
European markets were fractionally higher on Tuesday as investors in the region tracked concerns among their U.S. and Asia-Pacific counterparts over China’s tightening of Covid restrictions, which are continuing to pressure output.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up 0.3% in early trade. Oil and gas stocks added 3.2% after Saudi Arabia denied a report that OPEC+ may boost oil output, while tech stocks slid 0.5%.
– Elliot Smith
CNBC Pro: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson says inflation is set to slide, but warns of a ‘new era’ ahead
Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson said he expects a “pretty steep decline in inflation,” and predicts when this could happen.
But he said there are two areas that are exceptions, where inflation could be “stickier.”
— Weizhen Tan
CNBC Pro: Amazon’s down 40% this year — is it time to buy? Market pros give their take
Once a Wall Street darling, Amazon has lost some of its luster this year. The e-commerce giant’s stock has fallen more than 40%, well underperforming the S&P 500, which has declined about 15% in the same period.
Is it time for investors to pile back in? Two market pros faced off on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday to make a case for and against buying the stock.
— Zavier Ong
Oil hits lows not seen since January in Monday trading
Crude oil dropped to prices not see since January in Monday trading.
West Texas Intermediate was down 0.4% to $79.73 per barrel after hitting a low of $75.08. That hasn’t been hit since Jan. 3, when it traded as low as $74.27.
Brent lost 0.2%, ending at $87.45 after moving as low as $82.31. It was the lowest level since Jan. 11.
Prices for both have cooled since jumping earlier this year with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours
These are the stocks making the biggest moves after hours:
- Zoom – The pandemic darling slid 4.4% after giving a weak outlook for the fourth quarter despite topping expectations for earnings and revenue.
- Dell – The technology company popped as much as 6% after it beat anticipated revenue and earnings per share in its third quarter.
- Urban Outfitters – Shares went up 2.6% after reporting better-than-expected revenue growth in its latest quarter, despite earnings per share falling a penny short of estimates.
— Alex Harring
Stock futures open near flat
Stock futures opened near flat Monday night.
Futures for the Dow were down 0.01%.
S&P 500 futures lost 0.01%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.01%.
— Alex Harring
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